This is the time of year when Harley and Indian unveil their new models for the 12-months and years ahead. As has been the case in recent years, Harley has opted for a two part unveil strategy again.
The first part sees Harley running home to the paint booth it calls 'Mama' in an attempt to camouflage the paucity of its offer with pretty colors. I hope I am wrong, but from what I have been hearing for the past few months, Part Deux, slated for later in January, will just be fine-tuning of the present offer. Tinkering at the margins.
That early January news was mostly of returning models and paint jobs, which in theory leaves the field clear for a second stage of Harley's staggered model year announcement to 'wow' us all. But as far as I have been hearing it will mostly involve mods to existing platforms. It does not appear that it will involve entirely and fully new model concepts - just variations on existing themes - and certainly no new platform.
The irony is that Harley does have new platforms relatively readily available to them. As discussed last month their Chinese and Indian-made models are excellent 'for the money', they hit-the-sweet-spot of where the market's zeitgeist is at present, and they are outstanding doorswing bait.
The most recent news from Hero MotoCorp in India is of a second model on the X440 platform that, as expected would be the case, starts to make it look like an evolving portfolio - following the BMR R nineT and Ducati Scrambler playbooks in strategic terms at least. The Nightster X440 is a single of course, but it looks convincing and even with tariffs, imported into America would give the Royal Enfields, Triumphs, Hondas, Benellis, CFMoto and now, Indian Scout Sixty offerings of this world something to worry about in price-point and brand buy-in terms.
"yes, I said that out loud"
Which brings me onto my primary 'compare and contrast'. In contrast to what Harley appears to be doing, the new unit vacuum that Harley's dealers have in terms of an offer below $15k bears no comparison with what Indian Motorcycle has just dropped.
Indian's re-imagined three model Scout Sixty lineup is absolutely the right product at the right time and being able to offer such Made-in-America design and build value is a lesson that Harley appears utterly immune to. It would appear that Harley is deaf to the message that the market is sending.
Starting at just $10k, the level of sophistication, ergonomics, electronics, creature comforts and technology these Scout Sixties are equipped with - as standard - is just off-the-scale.
Bear in mind that in terms of affordability, $10,000 isn't what it was even as recently as just four years ago. In real terms an equivalent to that price-point now might have been around $9,000 (at most) in 2022 or 2023, and although it didn't exist back then, the equivalent spec is comparable to bikes that would have cost twice as much.
Of course, I'd love the whole world to be buying and riding zillions of lovely big fat V-twins at hugely inflated prices, then seeing their owners spending as much again on them in the first three years of ownership.
But despite the 21st Century having dawned as a 'bright and shiny' thing 25 years ago, full of 'vim and vigour' with a horizon populated by the promise of ever-increasing sales, ever-increasing profits and an ever-increasing and ever-increasingly fun motorcycle industry to be a part of, the world neither feels or looks like that right now.
Manufacturers like Harley, especially, need to get real. Arrogance has been at the root of KTM's problems, fuelling an imperious sense of self-worth and a deluded motorcycle industry world view.
Sad to say, Harley has now fallen back into much the same mindset that trapped it in the 'noughties'. Even if, in its case, reducing unit numbers was seen as the solution - whereas KTM's assumption was that if they made them, the people would come.
Two very different 'orange and black' stories but, alarmingly, two very similar potential outcomes. The details maybe different, and the motorcycles of both are great, to be fair, but both are in trouble regardless.
In 1998 Harley and KTM came within 48 hours or merging, or of KTM being bought out by Harley (depending on whose version of history you buy into) and now, fast forward little more than 25 years and you have two motorcycle businesses that could indeed end up on the same balance sheet - though now it could, possibly, be one that will be under Chinese ownership.
If anyone thinks I am being alarmist, yes, I am. I am quite deliberately exaggerating this as a possible outcome expressly because even if unlikely, it is still more likely that it should be - besides there are no Chinese manufacturers that would be foolish enough to buy both.
We'll know within a relatively short time frame just what future awaits KTM, but based on my reading, falling under Chinese (or other Asian) ownership is at least a 50/50 proposition.
In Harley's case it remains less possible, though the likelihood is growing. Surely the responsibility of any management team is to make such an outcome IMPOSSIBLE. In and of itself, whether or not Harley ends up as a Chinese-owned brand isn't actually the primary issue here. The primary issue is that there is any kind of hostile take-over danger at all.
Allowing that to be the case represents an egregious abrogation of primary responsibilities by any company management, but in Harley's case successive managements have utterly failed to understand fully the industry they are a part of, and to grasp the realities of the real-world circumstances in which its dealers are having to trade. Yes, I really did just say that, and out loud too.
It is to be hoped that the promotion of CFO and former HDFS man Jonathan Root to President 'Commercial' is the start of a series of management changes that, whether or not destined to trigger a complete change at the top of Harley, will, either way and for sure, trigger a series of massive changes in direction.
