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Monday 1 February 2016

Harley-Davidson

Harley U.S. unit sales -3.4 percent in final quarter 2015 but 'International' sales +3.7 percent; profits up but share price remains volatile

Harley-Davidson has reported fourth quarter 2015 retail motorcycle sales down by -0.6 percent worldwide compared to the year-ago quarter at 46,857 units; for the full year sales were -1.3 percent worldwide at 264,627 units.



In the United States fourth quarter sales were -3.4 percent at 26,044 units and -1.7 percent for the full year at 168,240 units.
Sales in the 'European' region (EMEA - Europe, Middle East and Africa) were -1.7 percent for the fourth quarter at 7,689 units and -4.5 percent for the full year at 43,287 units.
Total international unit retail sales (Latin America, Canada, EMEA and  Asia Pacific regions) were +3.7 percent for the final quarter of 2015 at 20,813 units and broadly level
(-0.6 percent) for the full year 2015 at 96,387 units.
Harley says its U.S. market share was 51.4 percent in the 601cc-plus category, which is flat compared to the year ago period.
"Our U.S. market share stabilized as we began to ramp up marketing investment, and as we lapped the initial impact of heightened competitiveness and price discounting that began late in the fourth quarter of 2014," said Matt Levatich, President and Chief Executive Officer.
Retail Harley-Davidson motorcycle sales in Canada grew +12.3 percent in the quarter, following the company's move to direct distribution there. The Asia Pacific region had its best year ever for dealer sales of new Harley-Davidson motorcycles at +7.3 percent for 2015 (32,258 units; +8.2 percent for the fourth quarter at 8,787 units).
For the full year, Harley-Davidson says it was number one in market share in the 601cc-plus segment in the U.S., Canada, Australia, India and Japan.
"We are focused, with strength and resolve, on growing demand and building on our substantial market leadership position," continued Levatich.
"Although we expect the macro-economic environment to remain challenging, we are confident we'll continue to lead with our powerful brand – not simply because of our substantial strengths but through our increased demand-driving investments and our incredibly talented and passionate employees and dealers."
The company says that throughout 2015 its retail motorcycle sales were adversely affected by heightened competitive pressures, including those arising from shifts in world currencies.
In October last year, shortly before announcing the departure of Chief Marketing Officer Mark Hans Richer, the company unveiled plans to increase its "customer-facing" marketing investment, starting in 2016, by approximately +65 percent over 2015 levels, and to increase its investment in new product development by approximately +35 percent from 2015.
These changes [funded in part by lay-offs] represent an approximate $70 million increase in investments to drive demand compared to 2015. The increased investments are being focused in four key areas identified by Levatich - increasing product and brand awareness; growing new ridership in the U.S.; increasing and enhancing brand access; and accelerating the "cadence and impact" of new products.
Harley-Davidson says it expects to ship 269,000 to 274,000 motorcycles in 2016, an approximate 1 percent to 3 percent increase from 2015 shipments. In the first quarter of 2016, the company expects to ship 78,000 to 83,000 motorcycles compared to 79,589 motorcycles shipped in the year-ago period.
During the fourth quarter, revenue from motorcycles and related products was down versus the prior year on unfavorable mix [Touring model sales were -13.2 percent for the final quarter and -6.3 percent for the full year] and currency exchange, partially offset by the benefit of higher shipments.
The decrease in operating income for the quarter was primarily driven by higher SG&A spending [Selling, General and Administrative expenses], partially offset by a strong gross margin percent.
Financial services operating income fell slightly in the fourth quarter of 2015 compared to the year-ago period on a higher provision for retail credit loan losses, largely offset by strong net interest income.
Full-year 2015 diluted earnings per share decreased -4.9 percent to $3.69 compared to diluted EPS of $3.88 in 2014. Net income was $752.2 million on consolidated revenue of $6.0 billion compared to full-year 2014 net income of $844.6 million on consolidated revenue of $6.23 billion.
In the fourth quarter of 2015, diluted EPS was $0.22 compared to $0.35 in the prior year period. Fourth quarter net income was $42.2 million on consolidated revenue of $1.18 billion compared to net income of $74.5 million on consolidated revenue of $1.20 billion in the year-ago period.
In the three months since Harley announced its third quarter 2015 results its share price had lost as much as 33.54 percent of its value by the day before these final quarter figures released (October 19 2015 $56.05 to a January 28 low of $37.25).
On January 28th 2015 the share price was at $62.29, marking a 40.2 percent loss in 12-months and a 48.7 percent loss in under 20 months since its May 2nd 2014 five-year high of $72.68 - see also 'Comment' on page four of this month's AMD magazine edition.
www.harley-davidson.com