When it comes to an unlikely and counterintuitive response to a recession, a pandemic that promotes the advantages of motorcycling and lays the groundwork for parts and accessory industry growth has to be the most unlikely 'super spreader' any of us will see in our lifetimes.
With consumers embracing PTWs (Powered Two-Wheelers) as a viable and preferable alternate to crowded, unhygienic, bad-air mass transit systems and as an economic non-public mobility solution (urban, suburban and otherwise) at a time of chronic economic uncertainty, it would appear the early signs of motorcycle industry reliance seen at the height of the first wave of coronavirus earlier this year may well be proving to be sustainable after all.
The vendors I have been speaking and emailing with the past few weeks are, almost universally, continuing to report that they are doing well - and are certainly doing better than might have been expected.
Simultaneously, the economic news is pointing to a slightly less dire downturn than had been widely expected and, with three weeks to go to the U.S. election at the time of writing, a Wall Street sentiment that is placing a premium on the less unstable outlook for markets than had been feared.
It's not that investors are embracing the likelihood and desirability of one outcome over another as such, but, at this time, the fact that it does appear increasingly likely that there will be a definitive outcome of some kind is reducing the destabilizing effects of uncertainty - always the primary enemy of any economy.
They say that a day is a long time in politics, so with three weeks to go, goodness knows how gauche that observation will appear to be by the time you get to read this. Whatever the outcome, we need it to be decisive and definitive. Uncertainty would be about as welcome as a fart in a spacesuit.
The used vehicle sales phenomena is affecting automotive as well as motorcycles, and even without the very particular factors that play to the motorcycle industry's advantage at this time, if our market tracks what is being seen in automotive, then illness and wider economic woes aside, the winter may not be as dark for motorcycle shops as had looked likely.
"running on vapors"
Of course, the fates and fortunes are not equal in the treatment they hand out, and not all motorcycle stores are themselves 'equal'. One irony is that whereas franchised motorcycle stores, and in our case authorized Harley dealerships in particular, are usually a better hedge against bad times than independence, the glacial pace of Milwaukee production and stockpiling of 2021 inventory until some time in January mean that Harley dealers are having a real bad time of it.
That much can be seen from the number of store closures and forced retirements (where once dealers were able to cash in), and with Jochen Zeitz projecting at least 160 fewer stores in the United States as he seeks to rewire the strategic plan in his own image, for once glorious independence and the pre-owned market aren't looking too bad as places to be after all.
It is also worth a shout out for Indian Motorcycle dealers too. The paucity of new Harley inventory can't be hurting them, especially where shifting the more difficult Big Twins has been concerned.
How long P&A and pre-owned units will remain a lifeboat is debatable of course, and the life of the independent shop is a precarious one at the best of times. Even when custom work and builds were flowing like milk and honey in the promised land of the early noughties, vulnerability lurked in every corner.
The near monopoly that the independent stores used to have over the back then largely unwanted used vehicle inventory has itself come under pressure. The emergence of the online and Brick and Mortar pre-owned specialists, the authorized stores now finding that they have the showroom floor space and price-points to justify once unprofitable pre-owned examples and, of course, their access to advantageous factory backed finance deals.
I have heard tales of riders slapping credit cards down on counters for pre-owned bikes while there still are any to be had. While that is one way of doing it, if consumers are not in a position to pay it down quickly, if life circumstances change on them, then what may have looked like a dream deal could quickly turn into a nightmare. Our industry has been there before.
However, regardless of the pitfalls, regardless of the risks and underlying uncertainties of where we are at in the economic and pandemic cycles, pre-owned motorcycles typically mean new handlebars, new seats, new brakes, new hoses and cables, maybe overhauled clutches, transmissions and engines and maybe even some nice new wheels and fenders - and one can do so much better than those tired old stock instruments and hey, while we're about it, why not some fresh sounds and creature comforts too. Let's face it, the timing of Harley's new Stage and other kits isn't accidental.
To judge by reports from vendors, distributors and independent shop owners alike, the love isn't being restricted to authorized stores alone though. For the first time in years there is momentum in the aftermarket parts and accessory industry at this time, and even four or five more months of it would allow us to bridge the gap to the 2021 riding season.
It also has to be remembered that ever since late August the market has been running on vapors in terms of the action usually triggered by the new Harley Model Year too. Indeed, some of the parts distributors I have been speaking with are also saying that inventory is their main problem right now.
Time will tell whether or not the move to a second half of January new model introduction cycle will have turned out to have been a stroke of genius or not, and we won't really know either way until we start to lap the MY21 announcement in early 2022.
With Harley due to unveil its all new 'ZEITZGEIST' in a few weeks and some hints already in circulation - closure of the Indian factory, distribution deal with HERO, go ahead for the QJ models in China, dropping Sportsters in Europe, delays for the BRONX - perhaps the 'bridge time' may be further reduced to more like three to four months?