Harley's 'Revolution Max' - the new EVO? When the first mentions of the new Harley 'Pan American' ADV, and what we now know will be called the 'Bronx' Streetfighter, appeared in Harley's 2018 'More Roads' wish list, many (most?) assumed that they would be 45-degree V-twins.
Once it became apparent that "new platform" really did mean "new platform", albeit new V-twin platform, the prospect of a 60 or even 90-degree V-twin was tantalizing. A typical Harley 45-degree layout really would have been a missed opportunity.
Much relief then to see at Milan that Harley has gone down the 60-degree route. Always a far superior and much underestimated layout (RIP the much-underestimated genius that was Alan Sputhe), finally embracing a new V-twin layout is a major moment and a major statement.
The all-new 60-degree 'Revolution Max' liquid-cooled V-twin engine is therefore a genuine step forward and a genuinely entirely new platform that should, in the long-term, allow Harley to build a position in two new markets. Now, let's not get carried away, Harley simply will not, ever, overtake BMW or even Honda (with the 'Africa Twin'), to say nothing of others in the ADV market.
Nor is the 'Bronx' ever likely to be a Ducati beater. Regardless of where you stand on the 'Monster' and 'Diavel' streetfighter-esque iterations debate, Ducati just knocked it out of the park with its much anticipated "super naked" Öhlins/Marchesini equipped V4 Streetfighter - powered by the liquid-cooled 1,103 cc Desmosedici Stradale 90-degree engine from the existing Panigale V4 range.
With an optional full Akrapovic racing exhaust system, the 'S' version is going to be tipping the scales at 220 hp and over 90 ft. lbs torque at a cost of just 180 kg (397 lb) dry.
That is the air that Harley-Davidson is eventually going to be needing to breathe if it has serious ambitions of ever owning the Streetfighter market, so, "let's be serious here", a "reasonably convincing" position in the Streetfighter market, choking on Ducati's dust, is the best it can hope for.
Ditto in the ADV market. BMW is a long way ahead in 'that world,' and even to become a distant object in its mirrors would be quite an achievement.
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| In strategic terms, will the 'R-Max' do for Harley what the EVO did in the 1980s? |
All that said though, kudos to Harley if it does manage to get some sales under its belt once the new bikes start hitting showroom floors around the end of 2020, because the start-point it will have given themselves will have been self-funded and self-engineered.
Harley has a niche in which it is a world beater, a niche in which it is still going to be a long time before Indian Motorcycle can hope to be a major-units rival, and one in which the sales BMW is able to achieve with its burgeoning R nineT program and upcoming R 18 Big Boxer engine 'Heavy Cruiser' range are likely to be on the fringes of Harley's core opportunities with the M-8 Softails and Tourers.
Similarly, Harley's ADV and Streetfighter action is likely to be on the fringes of BMW's and Ducati's respective sector dominance, but no matter. If it is enough to keep shareholders and the private equity investors in the dealer network fed with dividends for a while, then the 'Revolution Max' is going to be something Harley can build on. Maybe 20 years from now it will be seen as the 21st century equivalent of the EVO (which, BTW, was 35 years old in 2019).
It was the EVO platform that built a foundation for turn-around in even worse times for Harley than these are. In 1985 Harley wasn't just circling the drain, but was reputedly 48 hours or less from padlocking the gates at Juneau Avenue.
These days Harley's problems may not be quite so dramatically existential, but if it is to sustain the independence it does have (notwithstanding shareholder equity), then a platform from which to build out an extension to its present market(s) is just as sorely needed in the context of a moribund domestic U.S. motorcycle market, but one that is doing really rather well internationally.
New motorcycle registrations for EU markets were +8.1% at 903,586 for the first nine months of 2019, and by the time the year-end numbers have been crunched, motorcycle sales in Europe will have seen five straight years of (mostly) strong growth.
In relation to Harley and the extension to its present markets, if Europe is anything to go by, its entry into the electric motorcycle market is likely to, eventually, be judged as being more in hope than realistic expectation. Culturally, Europe is at least a decade ahead of the domestic U.S. market in terms of its embrace of electrification, and in Europe, the total number of electric motorcycle sales in the (still currently!) 28 EU markets may have been +66.9% for the first nine months of 2019, but at just 9,386 units (plus a further 46,858 'Mopeds'), it doesn't look like the 'E' sector is going to be a significant balance sheet feeder for Harley or any other motorcycle manufacturer any time soon.